The math of buying a home in Davis just got tougher in a specific, measurable way. With the 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbing from 6.18% to 6.53% since our last analysis — a move of 0.35 percentage points, per Freddie Mac via FRED — the monthly principal-and-interest payment on a median-priced Davis home now consumes 51.7% of the local median household income. That is well above the 43% threshold the National Association of Realtors and federal lending standards treat as unaffordable, and it leaves Davis buyers stretched further than buyers in most peer markets absorbing the same rate move.

What the rate jump costs Davis buyers

On a median Davis sale price of $765,355, with 20% down and a 30-year fixed loan, monthly principal and interest now run $3,882 at 6.53%, compared with $3,742 at the prior 6.18% rate. That is a $140 increase per month, or roughly $1,680 per year, for buyers signing today versus those who locked in at the previous reference rate.

The per-month hit is notably larger than what buyers in many neighboring cities are absorbing from the same rate move — a function of Davis’s elevated median price. Most peer markets in the region are seeing monthly impacts in the $50-to-$80 range from this same 0.35-point shift. In Davis, the higher home price amplifies every basis point.

Against a Davis median household income of $90,045, reported by the U.S. Census Bureau ACS, the new $3,882 payment translates to that 51.7% income share. Even before this rate move, the payment at 6.18% would have consumed about 49.9% of median income — already above the 43% line. The latest rate increase pushes Davis deeper into territory where the typical local earner cannot qualify for the typical local home under conventional debt-to-income standards.

Year-over-year context and the refinance picture

It is worth noting that today’s 6.53% rate is still below where rates sat one year ago, when the 30-year fixed averaged 6.72%, according to Freddie Mac via FRED. So while the recent direction is up, buyers are not at a 12-month high. Davis’s median sale price has also softened over the same window, falling 6.1% year-over-year, which has offset some — though not all — of the cumulative affordability pressure from elevated rates.

For existing Davis homeowners considering a refinance, the current 30-year rate of 6.53% offers limited relief unless they are carrying a loan originated at notably higher rates. The 15-year fixed now sits at 5.68%, which may be more relevant for owners with substantial equity who can absorb a shorter amortization and want to reduce total interest paid.

What’s driving the move

Mortgage rates respond to a mix of Federal Reserve policy, 10-year Treasury yields, and inflation expectations. The 0.35-point increase since our last analysis reflects movement in those underlying drivers, but the day-to-day path of rates is not something this article will forecast.

What is concrete for Davis: at 6.53%, a median-priced home requires a monthly payment that exceeds half of median local income. First-time buyers without substantial down-payment assistance, family help, or dual high incomes face the steepest barriers. Repeat buyers carrying equity from a prior Davis sale have more flexibility, though the 6.1% year-over-year decline in median price has trimmed some of that cushion as well.

Buyers, sellers, and homeowners weighing decisions in this market now have the current numbers in hand.