Home sales in Fair Oaks fell sharply over the late summer and early fall. According to newly released data from Redfin, 73 homes sold in the three months ending October 2026, a 31.1% decline from the 106 sold in the same period of 2025. The drop in sales volume did not come with weaker prices or slower sales. The median sale price rose 8.2% year-over-year, and homes sold faster than they did a year earlier. In this unincorporated Sacramento County community of about 32,799 residents, the data points to a market where fewer transactions are closing but buyers are still competing for the homes that come up for sale.

A thinner sales pipeline

The decline in closed sales is larger than the decline in supply. New listings fell to 106 from 117 a year earlier, and active inventory fell 12.3% year-over-year, to 178 homes from 203. Fewer homes coming to market explains part of the drop in sales but not all of it, since sales fell by a wider margin than either measure of supply.

Longer-term figures put the slowdown in context. The same three-month period recorded 106 sales in both 2024 and 2025, and 158 in 2021. That makes the latest total of 73 well below the levels of recent years.

Compared with the three months ending September 2026, sales fell 5.2%, from 77 to 73. Some of that dip likely reflects the usual seasonal cooling as the market moves from summer into fall. Over the same stretch, inventory edged up 1.7%, from 175 to 178 listings.

Prices and competition

The median sale price in Fair Oaks reached $665,537 in the three months ending October, up 8.2% from $615,000 a year earlier. Price per square foot, which adjusts for differences in home size, rose 6.6% to $326 from $306. Because both measures increased, the higher median does not appear to come only from a shift toward larger homes.

Prices have not risen steadily, however. The median declined 2.7% from $684,000 in the three months ending September. Looking further back, the current median sits above the $637,500 recorded two years ago and is up 2.9% from $646,500 five years ago, a modest gain for a five-year period.

Several measures show more competition among buyers than a year ago:

  • Speed: The median home sold in 24 days, down 25% from 32 days a year earlier. Listings are going under contract more than a week sooner than last fall.
  • Bidding: 28.2% of homes sold above list price, up from 17.9% a year earlier.
  • Sale-to-list ratio: Homes sold for 99.2% of asking price on average, so most buyers paid close to the listing price.

The pace has slowed slightly in the most recent period. Median days on market rose 4.3% month-over-month, from 23 to 24 days, a small change that fits typical fall patterns. Sales are also slower than in 2021, when the median home sold in 13 days.

At current sales rates, Fair Oaks has about 2.4 months of supply. That level indicates a tight sellers’ market in which buyers have a limited selection of homes. This helps explain how prices and bidding activity increased even as the number of sales fell.

Affordability and rates

Higher borrowing costs have made purchases harder over the past year. Freddie Mac data reported by the Federal Reserve shows the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 7.33% in October 2026. That is up from 6.86% in September and 6.25% in October 2025. The 15-year fixed rate averaged 6.66% in October, compared with 5.49% a year earlier.

The combined effect of higher prices and higher rates is significant. A buyer purchasing a median-priced Fair Oaks home with 20% down on a 30-year fixed loan would pay about $3,661 a month in principal and interest. That is $632 more per month than the $3,029 payment on a median-priced home a year earlier.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the median household income in Fair Oaks is $116,975. The median home now costs 5.7 times that amount, above the roughly 5x level generally considered unaffordable. The estimated monthly payment equals 37.6% of the median household’s monthly income, which is stretched but still within the range lenders commonly allow.

Nationally, home prices also increased from a year earlier, based on the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index. Fair Oaks’ 8.2% gain in its median sale price over the same general timeframe was among the more notable local increases. The rise came during a period when the number of buyers completing purchases in the community fell by nearly a third.